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Syria has fallen, or saved?

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After 13 years of disruption the current chapter in the Syrian saga comes to a close (?), not sure the winners are too western friendly, but let’s see what comes next, will they continue into the Lebanon to reduce further Iran’s local power base or wipe out the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds for their Turkish backers.

apple.news

Syrian rebels appear to have entered Damascus as Assad regime’s defenses crumble — CNN

Syrian rebels appear to have entered the capital Damascus after facing scant resistance from regime forces, as President Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long grip on power appeared to wane by the minute.
apple.news apple.news
 
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I just hope their portrayal as a more moderate group, rather than an extremist ISIS style group, holds up and is not just a PR Smoke screen. Syria may simply have swapped one dictatoral regime for another. The reaction of Russia, the USA and Iran to the situation will be an interesting watch, all have other issues in play so what percentage of their interest is focused on Syria remains to be seen. The Turks haven't wanted an independent Kurdish free state in the past and whether that becomes the price they, the Turks, have to pay for backing the anti Assad rebels time will tell. Whatever happens Syria is a right mess and one we would do well to stay a long way away from. Weirdly Israel may well be pleased with the turn of events at least in the short term. An Iranian backed Assad regime allowed relativley free movement of men, materials and munitions through Syria to their allies in Lebanon Hezbelloh and possbly onwards to Hamas. If this new Syrian regime is at odds with Iran that conduit could be severed which would please Israel quite a bit.
 
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I see that the PM and his deputy have both quickly welcomed the fall of Assad. Let us hope that they, and the people of Syria, don't quickly come to regret the change of regime. Sometimes it is better to deal with the devil you know than open a whole new can of worms. After all, as Labour should know well, toppling the nasty piece of work that was Sadam Hussein didn't exactly bring joy, harmony and lasting peace to Iraq...
 
dctyke said:
Shares in “Burka r Us” are up………………
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I share your concern. When Taliban 2.0 took over they intially said they were a different organisation than the hard line nut jobs who previously ran the group. They said all would be well with basic human rights and more importantly womens rights. Now a few short years later Afghanistan is back to the religious middle ages. A lot will depend, for the Syrian people, and the wider region how HTS behave, for now and into the future. HTS will also have to balance their wants with the wants of other groups who where united against Assad but perhaps differ on other important issues. The future of the Russian naval bases covering the Eastern Med might worth keeping an eye on. We live in interesting times
 
Hopefully the various groups can work together and form a functioning government that can rebuild Syria after all these years of war. They could do well to look at Libya and the mess they have been making over the last 13 years, maybe learn what not to do.
 
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Flumpdaddy said:
Hopefully the various groups can work together and form a functioning government that can rebuild Syria after all these years of war. They could do well to look at Libya and the mess they have been making over the last 13 years, maybe learn what not to do.
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I admire your optimism but I fear that Syrian stability will be of the Afghan variety, as equally repressive as Assad with religious intolerance thrown in. The presence of that sort of regime so close to the Med and Israel doesn't, to me, look like good news for the west.
 
I think…and hope, that after decades of oppression by the Assad regime, the Syrian people will not accept anything but Democracy, only time will tell.
 
Vushtrri said:
I think…and hope, that after decades of oppression by the Assad regime, the Syrian people will not accept anything but Democracy, only time will tell.
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Hammas were democratically elected, this part of the world works best with a strong leader who controls the masses via patronage, works okay in a few places in those parts.
 
Oldstacker said:
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I admire your optimism but I fear that Syrian stability will be of the Afghan variety, as equally repressive as Assad with religious intolerance thrown in. The presence of that sort of regime so close to the Med and Israel doesn't, to me, look like good news for the west.
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Unless this is a Turkish backed effort with ongoing support to see a more moderate version of Islam take control of Syria?
 
Oldstacker said:
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I admire your optimism but I fear that Syrian stability will be of the Afghan variety, as equally repressive as Assad with religious intolerance thrown in. The presence of that sort of regime so close to the Med and Israel doesn't, to me, look like good news for the west.
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Wishful thinking more than optimism sadly. I fully expect the fighting to continue between the separate factions as they all try to form their version of a free Syria. Israel bombing anything they see as a possible threat won't help, and I won't be surprised if Turkey does something similar along their boarder areas. End result will be a fractured nation. I don't think it will descend to the levels of the current Afghan dark age but it won't be pleasant.
 
The people in that region are very tribal-oriented and will never be happy under central governance; let them revert to tribal rule and start new treaties with each other.

They do not have the administrative infrastructure or the will, in many cases, to hold democratic elections and remove the rebels from power.
 
Now that Assad has taken a permanent holiday in Russia, Vlad's navy will soon loose yet another warm water port that is if they haven't left already,
As for governance, it'll take years before it settles down. The new management will no doubt 'promise' tolerance, but we all know what happened when the Taliban took over in Afghanistan. I imagine the various neighbouring countries and religious factions all hovering round like vultures ready to pounce and 'help' to stabilise' the situation.
On a brighter side, all the Syrian 'refugees' and 'asylum seekers' will be booking flights to Damascus etc so they can return to their homes, (yeh right!) and as an extra bonus, Shamina Begum will have somewhere to call home now unless Two Tier Keir (the famous lying flip flop dullard) lets her back here.
I just hope UK Govt keeps us out of it we can't afford it, and we don't have the resources in men or materials either.
Hopefully Donny T will keep out too, otherwise it'll turn into a right royal $#it burger.
 
In the UK and alll across Europe, "Syrian refugees"are having their asylum claims suspended with certain countries talking about forced repatriation if the "asylum seeker" doesn't want to leave.

I wonder how many "non Syrian refugees" who joined the flow to Europe are about to have their cover blown?

And no doubt there will be lengthy, costly legal challenges across the board as plenty of those who've taken a shine to Western life won't want to go home.

Another mess on the way for already squeezed taxpayers to pay for.
 
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