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Is Ukraine about to get messy?

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Amid concerns that Russian troops are positioned along the border of Ukraine, is it about to get messy?

www.reuters.com

Biden warns Putin of sanctions, aid for Ukraine military if Russia invades

President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that the West would impose "strong economic and other measures" on Russia if it invades Ukraine, while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand farther eastward.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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Personal opinion ..NO!!! If Russia invades all that will happen will be the usual sanctions, condemnations blah blah blah. But money and natural gas (Nord 2 pipeline) talks so expect minimal action. Poor Ukraine will be expendable in the name if appeasement.

USA becoming isolationist while turning their attention to a growing power challenging it in the Pacific; UK making Forces cuts especially in manpower; The European NATO nations not exactly looking militarily intimidating; Belligerent nation looking to expand its borders in Europe by intimidation. As the saying goes from the Millenial Battlestar Galactica: "All this has happened before and it will happen again!". Some of the Actors are different but the parallels to WW2 are the same to some degree......
 
I dare say the Russian Ambassador may get a summoning for a good hard telling off from a Civil Servant, which will go in one ear and out the other, and a letter will be written, but we are not going to take on Russia, and they know it.
 
muttywhitedog said:
I dare say the Russian Ambassador may get a summoning for a good hard telling off from a Civil Servant, which will go in one ear and out the other, and a letter will be written, but we are not going to take on Russia, and they know it.
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If Russia persists we may follow up the letter with a very stern memo.
As a small island off the coast of Europe we are not going to get into fisticuffs with Russia.
 
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Nobody needs to go to actual gun toting war anymore. One lot can cripple the other in a matters of days by stopping one critical utility, mineral or financial service from moving.
 
Vim_Fuego said:
Nobody needs to go to actual gun toting war anymore. One lot can cripple the other in a matters of days by stopping one critical utility, mineral or financial service from moving.
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True. But I think this under-estimates the importance of boots on the ground, in the air and at sea. BUT...We are too reliant on computer technology now in the military IMHO. Too much stuff is networked. It has a purpose but there now seems to be a massive reliance on it.
 
I do think that if Ivan is crazy enough to invade, he will get thoroughly mauled by the Ukrainian forces.

Last time Russia invaded (2014) they were able to get a foothold in Donetsk and Crimea because everybody said "There's no way that Russia will invade" and the Russians wrongfooted everyone by getting their supporters in Ukraine to stage an uprising first... then they sent in their own forces (whilst denying they were doing it) to occupy ground whilst everyone else was too busy trying to sort out the internal conflicts.

However, Ukraine has increased it's ground forces and added extra bits of kit that could tip the balance... such as modern anti-tank missiles from the US and drones from Turkey (drones that have just swung a conflict between two of the "stans").

On top of that, various countries are providing intelligence (daily Rivet Joint flights on the borders... Public knowledge) and we ourselves have provided Landrovers, Patrol Vessels, First Aid training and equipment, communications equipment and various training exercises.

In addition, Russia no longer have surprise. All of the political denials by Putin and Russia in general are being ignored and everyone is telling Putin that we can see what he's doing... the same thing the Russians did in Georgia, Chechnya and previously in Ukraine.

I think that if it does get messy and the Uki's manage to hold the Russians off, they'll push to kick the Russians out of Crimea and the Donbass and reinstate the pre 2014 borders.

ATB from HTB

ATB from HTB
 
Rugby-Jock-Lad said:
True. But I think this under-estimates the importance of boots on the ground, in the air and at sea. BUT...We are too reliant on computer technology now in the military IMHO. Too much stuff is networked. It has a purpose but there now seems to be a massive reliance on it.
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Yes, but any of these assets on first look being too 'over reliant' on networking etc will have resilience plans built in, would even be a part of the User Requirement Documentation during the early stages of CADMID, to still function and deliver an acceptable effect should it lose access to whatever it is networked to.
 
It gets messy.
So mad Vlad Putin has sent the troop in to Eastern Ukraine. From the Kremlin view point is it simply Russian troops providing aid and security to the Russian leaning citizens of the newly and quickly formed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and protecting them from the shelling attacks of the nasty Ukraine army. From the west’s view it’s just another bite out of the Ukraine biscuit following the big chunk that was bitten off when mad Vlad annexed the Crimea in 2014. Now two more bits have been nibbled off. So, are we headed back to the cold war era? Is mad Vlad trying to reform some version of the old Soviet Union? From our perspective is team GB now to small to play big boy games on the world stage? Is it time to issue the rose-tinted glasses to the oldies and remember days of tac-evals, LOA and cheap German petrol, booze and fags?
 
Are we headed back to the Cold War era?

More fool those in charge who forced the "Peace Dividend" philosophy around and started cutback after cutback whilst still sending us off to war in sandier climes. Now, we are woefully unprepared for anything more than a quick skirmish with little more than peashooters and some white elephant floating targets.

Russia was never going to go away and with the constant push eastwards by the chinless wonders in Brussels, the bear has been poked into action. The EU have been incredibly and noticeably silent on this subject whilst the UK and the US throw pointy words around and threaten immediate cessation of chocolate supplies into Red Square.

Sanctions? Putin couldn't give a flying **** about sanctions you know what with that huge communist landscape sitting on the Russian border ready to bankroll the new Red Army at the drop of a chopstick.

Now, about that train line they've built between China and Moscow. A Belt and Road trade initiative or a means to move lots of Chinese armour towards NATO's northern flanks? After all, the Chinese have been busy buying lots of things and eventually they might just want their stuff.

Europe is being encircled politically, economically and now physically with Ukraine being the start.

It's time for NATO to sharpen its sword.
 
We are too small to do anything meaningful.

Harsh Sanctions will hit the west's economy. Higher gas prices, higher oil prices, higher goods prices. Rather like covid restrictions, I dont think the majority of our society has the appetite for higher prices to make someone else's life better - Thatcher's legacy has finally come to fruition.

On the flip side, how long was Ukraine an independent sovereign nation before it was consumed into the USSR? My reading on it suggests that there was a close link between Ukraine & Russia for around 300 years - far longer than the one between the UK and the Falklands.
 
muttywhitedog said:
Thatcher's legacy has finally come to fruition.
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This must be a close cousin of the chaos theory. Which suggests that when a butterfly flaps it swings in the Himalayas it is the cause of a devastating tsunami in the Pacific. Little could TB Snr have known that when he had the freedom to buy his council house in the 80's that some 40+ years later his actions in the housing market would lead to the current major Geo-political instabilty in eastern Europe.

I would guess that China is watching these events very closely. With it's desire to take over Tiawan it will be very interested in how the West responds to the situation in Ukraine and may adjust its plans for Tiawan accordingly.
 
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I think the difference with the Pacific area is that the USA has a PROPER interest in ensuring that the area is pacified and that China is boxed!! Ukraine was written off by NATO, USA, Britain and the EU before the campaign by Russia began. Belligerent state annexing areas of Europe while other nations stand idly by...Growing Empire challenging USA in the Pacific... Hmmmmm.... "All this has happened before and will happen again"!!!
 
  • Ukraine isn't in NATO, so no NATO sanctioned involvement.
  • EU countries are too reliant on Russian gas, so those countries will hope someone else sorts the problem.
  • The UK is a very nearly a toothless tiger.
  • The USA is very powerful but playing a long way from home.
  • Putin has the guts to torment the USA & UK.
  • Has Biden got the guts to accept the challenge ?
 
It's also fair to say that Ukraine is not a country of sweetness and democratic tolerance that some quarters may present it as. Defending the Ukraine is, itself, defending some fairly dodgy characters from what I have seen. I also think that the EU/NATO move eastwards (not by invasion but by economic expansion) was always likely to be unwelcome in Moscow and we should have stayed clear for a lot longer...

What happens next? Who knows but I don't see Vlad backing down nor much of the EU (and by extension, NATO) having the cojones to do anything either....
 
Oldstacker said:
What happens next?
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My cloudy crystal ball says. The two new republics stay in Russian hands, world leaders huff and puff with the odd harump thrown in. In time it settles down to be the new status quo and if Mad Vlad is still around in a few years he moves his pieces westward a little more until he has either gone from power or has swallowed up all of Ukraine on some bogus peace keeping pretext.
 
Apparently we had to intervene stop the spread of possible conflict just like the Syria campaign. Such was the B0llloXx alwasys spouted by Orrifecers about conflicts that really should not have involved us!!!
 
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