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Is Ukraine about to get messy?

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Amid concerns that Russian troops are positioned along the border of Ukraine, is it about to get messy?

www.reuters.com

Biden warns Putin of sanctions, aid for Ukraine military if Russia invades

President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that the West would impose "strong economic and other measures" on Russia if it invades Ukraine, while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand farther eastward.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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Tin basher said:
In the dark days of the cold war and RAFG the Russian military capability was perceived as deeply worrying, many many exercises over many years where conducted to counter the supposed threat. They had apparently the potential, despite the Harriers, to roll through western Europe in short order. The Russian performance in the Ukraine war, so far, shows a different beast. Apparently tactically inept, badly trained, badly led and under supplied troops faltering in acheiving their objectives. All this coupled with a belief that they would win quickly and be welcomed by cheering crowds throwing flowers at the "liberating" troops. I know we only read the western side of the story but even given that pinch of salt it appears that Ivan has badly miscalculated. The showing of ship placement on state TV and it's part in the plan just highlights the seeming arrogance of the Russian forces.
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My recollection of cold war briefings (& I joined in '76) is that the reds were poorly trained and equipped but had weight of numbers and nasty weapons on their side. In those days the reds were the USSR which included many countries now on our side (e.g. Poland or Czechoslovakia) and other countries which are, if not on our side, at least ambivalent (such as the 'stans). Russia alone is a smaller beast than it was but with the same old weaknesses.
 
Oldstacker said:
My recollection of cold war briefings (& I joined in '76) is that the reds were poorly trained and equipped but had weight of numbers and nasty weapons on their side. In those days the reds were the USSR which included many countries now on our side (e.g. Poland or Czechoslovakia) and other countries which are, if not on our side, at least ambivalent (such as the 'stans). Russia alone is a smaller beast than it was but with the same old weaknesses.
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As I recall we weren't overly bothered about the standard ground troops because they didn't wear socks.

The enemy were the Spetsnaz, those little fúcking Green Parrot things and the nasty bombs delivered by plane or ICBM.
 
Russia has had over 20 years of corruption and ineptitude, its not a country run by a government with consent of the people, more a country run like a mafia organisation, this will have had an impact on its general levels of competence.
 
busby1971 said:
Russia has had over 20 years of corruption and ineptitude, its not a country run by a government with consent of the people, more a country run like a mafia organisation, this will have had an impact on its general levels of competence.
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Their supposed 'something to be feared' war doctrine is absolutely lacking as well.

  1. Generals or at least very high profile leaders far too close to the fight, preventing any sort of acceptable situational awareness, let alone having the sense to pass this info along and coordinate with other units. This has resulted in the loss of quite a few of their 'leadership'. Christ on a bike, one of the Generals had their legs crushed by a tank from their own unit when they had to retreat.
  2. Tanks going into urban areas with no ground troops to support.
  3. Situational awareness not to be observed in general.
  4. The obvious false pride they have in themselves and seriously underestimating the Ukrainians.
Amongst other points all mean that Military Staff Colleges around the world will study this to the Nth degree for decades.
 
Spearmint said:
Military Staff Colleges around the world will study this to the Nth degree for decades.
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They most certainly will. The who, what, when and why of the tactical and operational choices of both sides wil be dissected in detail. Almost a job creation scheme for conflict boffins
 
Spearmint said:
Their supposed 'something to be feared' war doctrine is absolutely lacking as well.

  1. Generals or at least very high profile leaders far too close to the fight, preventing any sort of acceptable situational awareness, let alone having the sense to pass this info along and coordinate with other units. This has resulted in the loss of quite a few of their 'leadership'. Christ on a bike, one of the Generals had their legs crushed by a tank from their own unit when they had to retreat.
  2. Tanks going into urban areas with no ground troops to support.
  3. Situational awareness not to be observed in general.
  4. The obvious false pride they have in themselves and seriously underestimating the Ukrainians.
Amongst other points all mean that Military Staff Colleges around the world will study this to the Nth degree for decades.
Click to expand...
Problem is the RAF Officer Corp tend to learn the wrong lessons and would view this as a BLUERPRINT for success :- O!!!!
 
Tin basher said:
… The Russian performance in the Ukraine war, so far, shows a different beast. Apparently tactically inept, badly trained, badly led and under supplied troops faltering in acheiving their objectives. All this coupled with a belief that they would win quickly and be welcomed by cheering crowds throwing flowers at the "liberating" troops. I know we only read the western side of the story but even given that pinch of salt it appears that Ivan has badly miscalculated. The showing of ship placement on state TV and it's part in the plan just highlights the seeming arrogance of the Russian forces.
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TB, you have described very clearly why surrounding yourself with sycophants (?) and believing your own sh!t is not a successful way to run things outside your control. The power of delusional TV propaganda is also evident in hyping up the expectations of those that crossed the border...into what they met and are still meeting. We are told the 75% of Russia still watch Russki-TV and believe the need for the ‘rescue’.

With upwards of 10k dead and 16k wounded, I believe the cannon fodder thrown into Ukraine are not the same as the CW Warriors we faced and I’m glad we didn’t need to fight them. The war is far from over and I believe the ‘professionals’ could be put into action soon. :(
 
You have to admire the Ukrainian spirit here are their spoof academy awards selection.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Ukraine holds military Oscars for seven best video moments of the war

The Defence Ministry announced awards including Best Picture for a burning Russian warship after it was struck by a ballistic missile in the Black Sea.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

yes it's the mail but as our resident IT biff I couldn't find another link
 
Being reported that mad Vlad has told his boys to crank it up a notch by deploying chemical weapons

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine War: US 'deeply concerned' at report of Mariupol chemical attack

Ukrainian forces in Mariupol say a Russian drone dropped a chemical substance on the city overnight.
www.bbc.co.uk

A dangerous upscaling of the war if confirmed. It may also allow Mad vlad to justify his desire to "De-Nazify" Ukraine. The Azov brigade started out as a group of your typical Eastern european neo Nazi nut jobs numbering a few hundred at most. Some of them are now incorporated into the national guard. if Mad Vlad takes the city of Mariupol and kills a few of the Azov brigdae he can claim victory over the Nazi's and liberation of Russian territory all in time for the big Moscow May day parades

en.wikipedia.org

Azov Brigade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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Tin basher said:
Being reported that mad Vlad has told his boys to crank it up a notch by deploying chemical weapons

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine War: US 'deeply concerned' at report of Mariupol chemical attack

Ukrainian forces in Mariupol say a Russian drone dropped a chemical substance on the city overnight.
www.bbc.co.uk

A dangerous upscaling of the war if confirmed. It may also allow Mad vlad to justify his desire to "De-Nazify" Ukraine. The Azov brigade started out as a group of your typical Eastern european neo Nazi nut jobs numbering a few hundred at most. Some of them are now incorporated into the national guard. if Mad Vlad takes the city of Mariupol and kills a few of the Azov brigdae he can claim victory over the Nazi's and liberation of Russian territory all in time for the big Moscow May day parades

en.wikipedia.org

Azov Brigade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Nutters vs Conscripts. Numbers may win. They haven't yet. Bloody pesky gammons spoiling Vlads cornflakes.
 
Take a look at Putin in this video. He's hanging onto the table. Suffering from something that the Kremlin want to keep quiet about??

 
4mastacker said:
Take a look at Putin in this video. He's hanging onto the table. Suffering from something that the Kremlin want to keep quiet about??

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Parkinson's is my guess if he's gripping something like that and doesn't want to show the shakes on camera.
 
He's put himself in an impossible position.

Quick win didn't occur...troops dying in numbers....most of civilised world now against him and arming the Ukraine...currency and economy now crumbling...in charge of a country where strength in leadership is required to stay in power...if he pulls out he's finished.

If you can't go backwards you need to find a way forwards. If what you have tried before isn't working try something else.

I think we'll see targeted strikes right on borders where military aid is being amassed and shipped to the front. These borders will eventually blur and the ball will firmly be in NATOs court to react to munitions landing on NATO soil.
 
Im surprised there hasnt been more terrorist incidents in Russia, theres lots of people there who have tried peaceful protest and ended up in jail, this isn’t working so I’d expect them to try something else to atop the war.

I also have doubts about knocking Putin out to stop the war, unless there is a regime change, that has to come from the Russian people, his No2, immediate replacement, is very likely to have a similar outlook on the world. Its unlikely that Navalny would be next in line.
 
NATO would waste Russia in a conventional fight!! Technology wise and man-power wise. We know it... he knows it... only thing going for him is the unpredictability with regards to pushing the boundaries using Nukes!!! But he has now locked himself into a proxy war with NATO with Ukraine the unfortunate victim!! This is not going away for him anytime soon. And the more he caws with rhetoric the more funding Ukraine will get. Sounds sadistic but I'm sure the Poles at a sub-conscious level would be happy for Russia to try it on.. As would Finland especially if they get NATO membership.
 
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