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Is Ukraine about to get messy?

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Amid concerns that Russian troops are positioned along the border of Ukraine, is it about to get messy?

www.reuters.com

Biden warns Putin of sanctions, aid for Ukraine military if Russia invades

President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that the West would impose "strong economic and other measures" on Russia if it invades Ukraine, while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand farther eastward.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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Oldstacker said:
As Cat Techie suggests, Mad Vlad will have no limits to tolerable losses. The question is better put as "how many losses are the senior commanders and general population prepared to tolerate?". Can the Kremlin propaganda machine keep hiding the truth of the situation?
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Even in peacetime, the Russians don't publish statistics on losses, so the general population probably won't know... until 30,000 plus sons never return home.
 
Talk Wrench said:
Even in peacetime, the Russians don't publish statistics on losses, so the general population probably won't know... until 30,000 plus sons never return home.
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Agreed, but even in Russia, 30000+ families will take some keeping quiet and the truth will start to seep out.
 
Oldstacker said:
Agreed, but even in Russia, 30000+ families will take some keeping quiet and the truth will start to seep out.
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Especially if the casualties are from Moscow or St Petersburg. I read elsewhere that the bulk of the casualties so far were from towns/villages in remoter parts of the country where the lack of social media made it easier to cover-up the losses.
 
4mastacker said:
Especially if the casualties are from Moscow or St Petersburg. I read elsewhere that the bulk of the casualties so far were from towns/villages in remoter parts of the country where the lack of social media made it easier to cover-up the losses.
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Indeed, they are mostly from way east.
 
Talk Wrench said:
There's unconfirmed reports that up to 50 Russian high rankers and up to 31000 Russian troops have died so far in Putin's "Special Operations"


How many more troops is Putin prepared to lose?
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That’s the trouble with WW1-styled “Attrition” wars - it mainly depends upon the size of the participants’ populations.

As an aside, I’ve only seen as much as 15,000 Russian troops dead in the papers, so perhaps 31,000 are the injured?
 
Rigga said:
That’s the trouble with WW1-styled “Attrition” wars - it mainly depends upon the size of the participants’ populations.

As an aside, I’ve only seen as much as 15,000 Russian troops dead in the papers, so perhaps 31,000 are the injured?
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Even if Russia wins the words Pyyrhic Victory comes to mind!!!
 
Imagine if, during WW2, we'd battled against the Nazi hordes whilst still paying them millions (I've adjusted for the step back into time) for a commodity, whilst also trying to sanction Adolf? That's how crazy this situation is...we are trying to break the will of the wider Russian population whilst making sure they receive the funds to offset the hurt?

It's probably mildly to moderately annoying for the Moscovites et al who got used to a cheeky Maccies and some decent western clothing/services but for the tens of millions of peasants sat huddled around a roaring candle on a good night they are likely to not give a jot as long as their potato soup is hot and edible.
 
Keep thinking what success looks like here, Sweeping russia out of the east and Crimea just isnt within the capability and capacity of the UA armed forces and Im not sure how long the rest of the world can stay united with the economic pressures ramping up.
 
Nice to see the solidarity of Macron’s France by actually increasing their GAZPROM consumption….yet another reason they are known as “The International Enemy”.
 
Talk Wrench said:
Ukraine has gotten the backing of various EU leaders for entry into the Brussels club.

www.aljazeera.com

European leaders back ‘immediate’ EU candidacy for Ukraine

Leaders of France, Italy, Germany and Romania visit Ukraine to pledge support and back Kyiv’s bid to join the EU.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
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Unless other countries (NATO) get involved…Russia is going to annexe a swathe of the Ukraine. It’s inevitable due to Putin not giving a flip about deaths and being head of state via a bunch of thugs through a dodgy election process. No matter how brave the Ukraine resistance is, sheer weight of numbers (men and materials) will win against a diminishing number of volunteers with a few regulars mixed in.

So what bit of the Ukraine will be left to join the EU…,and how much more will countries like France and Germany have to find to prop up another net taker who need a full rebuild programme with currently little or no way of raising revenue?
 
Vim_Fuego said:
Unless other countries (NATO) get involved…Russia is going to annexe a swathe of the Ukraine. ..........So what bit of the Ukraine will be left to join the EU…who need a full rebuild programme with currently little or no way of raising revenue?
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If Russia simply hold what they have that turns Ukraine into a landlocked nation. Amongst many other issues that will bring, it makes exporting large quantities of produce a problem.
 
This is how I see it without any social science research: Putin will gain the East. BUT... Instead of intimidating the West all he has done is forced their hand. Ukraine (what is left of it) will be subsumed into the EU, Sweden and Finland will join NATO, and inconveniently for Russia they will have NATO nearer their own doorstep. It seems lessons have been learnt from WW2 where a certain Megalomaniac and his Gangsters gobbled up regions in the vicinity prior to invading Poland. Rather than appeasing face up to them. That's what the Ukrainians have done and although they are losing in a (NATO - Russia PROXY) war of attrition they have bought time for the West, EU and NATO to get their act together. The sacrifice that the Ukrainian troops at Mariupol made should not be forgotten............
 
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Also to add: Ukraine is the NEW Poland. Poland was the 20th Century whipping boy caught between 2 powers. Ukraine has a choice... Join the EU with all that entails (the irony being the UK has left - the advantage of being an island and not land-locked) meaning a "soft" dictatorship ruled by France and Germany or a brutal Eastern power trying to re-live past glories that doesn't equate politically or militarily in the modern world.
 
While the West wobbles over the threat of a nuclear detonation over the Black Sea, Putin has apparently today ordered martial law in the four illegally annexed regions.
 
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