The decline in numbers within TG1 has been going on for well over decade now and the 'up-aboves' have done Sweet FA about it other than consistently kick this particular can down the road. In the summer 2010 Greg Bagwell visited the old folks home after requesting to speak with all the TG1 TM's and above on the STN and hear things from the horses mouth. (The fecking Chf Clk+his b1tch was also in attendance - go figure ) He asked us 'where were his ditch diggers'? which I thought was ironic given the landscape back then. He accepted that TG1's manning decline was inevitable and we should perhaps 'work smarter not harder'. Of course there were much sucking of teeth and guffawing and needless arse kissing, but crucially he offered nothing tangible as a solution. I PVR'd and left end of 2010. I had self-studied my aircraft licences and had been working voluntarily for a civilian MRO during leave and weekends - I got a job with Ryanair as a LWTR Engineer and was paid approximately £39k p/a so slightly less than I was earning as a C/T, but I did not hold a type rating at that point and that would increase once obtained, after gaining suitable experience. Roll forward to today in 2024 and RYR are paying circa £90K+ for a B737NG rated LAE including shift pay. So the draw for guys serving nowadays is far greater than 14 years ago. Of course various WO's have blamed AirTanker and the King Air sqn for highlighting this as a career step - again an extremely naive approach by those WO's who should frankly take a look in the mirror as to why guys are leaving in such numbers.
The only solution IMHO is to have a root and branch trade review and Mutty's suggestion has some merit I think. I have met guys who were 'aircraft engineers' but had never touched one in their careers, instead they had been on Software Teams doing the Mon-Fri /8-5 gig, they had done their BSc's, MSc's via distance learning and had high profile 2nd duties etc etc consequently their promotion trajectory was excellent ,,,, until they became C/T or F/S on a FJ sqn and their credibility suffered in that environment (eg had to learn how to write an SJAR they'd not had subordinates previously).
This 1 size fits all Trade analogy really doesn't work. Example if you want to develop SW and have the skills to do so, then join up in that specialisation and get paid accordingly, make comparisons with your civ' equivalent its an extremely specialised and well paid career. Conversely if you want to fix aircraft join up in that field, work the shifts and learn your trade and make comparisons to your civ' counterpart ( please DO NOT compare the job as an LAE with RYR (for example) with a boggo Cpl or Snec job on a sqn and say I should get £90k because the roles are not comparable) so compare like with like. If you work aircraft and do the shifts and time away then guys should get recognised for that. What the RAF does is pay everyone by their rank, irrespective of their job/specialisations/responsibility levels so obviously guys on the sqn's are gonna say 'balls to this'! If the bosses say 'We can't do that' , then TG1 is doomed.
Food for thought, Aircrew get specialist pay for flying aircraft so why not for other trades? The draw for pilots to join BA/ EJ/RYR is strong, but no stronger than for the engineers