7point plan of what's happened.
If you want credit, tell us what 8,9, and 10 are.
I'll have a go for you...Looking back at the track we are taking and realising the way its being delivered will tell us where we go next.
The bit I don't get yet and this makes me unsure of next steps a little is mapping the infection rate. We aren't testing enough so how do we know how bad it is? They are only testing those that present ill enough to rate a visit to hospital (on the whole). The BBC have a tool where you can type your county postcode in and see how many confirmed cases there are in that area. Mine says 25 right now. I know of 9 in two families incl 2 in mine (wife, youngest child) in just one town! Putting out a number to text (free) with your postcode, house number and number of people you think have it would provide fantastic intelligence (fudge factor applied for those that are mistaken and actually its some other form of virus). Least then, with an army of data inputters, you'd be getting a real-time'ish picture, where its worst and also where its not really spreading (outside of London).
Where next? Already this morning the roads, whilst quieter, are still busy with vans/tradesmen who feel they have no choice but to work. I think a package has to be defined that gives them the 80% compensation that PAYE people are getting. Get that lot home and safe and you significantly reduce the candidates for infection. I think that's a couple of days off being released from what I hear. I have just been told minutes ago that the police are pulling over builders vans here in my town and if the job you quote isn;t life and death they are being sent home
Shopping (including takeaways)- Still seen as a loophole for a trip out. Two things will influence this...
1. Too high a percentage of people will flaunt it as an excuse to get out of the house when they really could have not gone shopping for a number of days. Its in our behavioural blueprint that if we are bored, p1ssed off, happy, flush with funds etc that we go out to the shops if we have nothing else better to do. Shops will be asked to provide evidence of footfall and concentrations as shops and supermarkets become the last real place for mass-infection, especially if the supply chain doesn't catch up and shelves remain challenged. Mazlow's fifth hierarchy of needs states that we, in times of fright and plight, we run to the basics of food, warmth and shelter above all else and keeping an Armageddon level of food in the cupboard becomes obsessional...especially if we extend the lock-down period.
2. Death rate - We still aren't sufficiently spooked enough yet as a nation...see last weekends antics out and about as evidence. When the death rate picks up a pace and it affects people in your societal lineage then it becomes a reality. Right now reading about 'Fred Bloggs, 87 with underlying health issues' who snuffed it in a town you've never heard of doesn't mean anything to most...probably even rationalise it with 'good innings' or 'he was very ill with other things anyway' comments. Once we broach in 4 figures and beyond it should tie people down more.
Once we have proven that we can't stay in because temptation is too much the permissions to stay trading on takeaways will be withdrawn. People queuing for chips and kebabs reported last night in our town...that's going to go within the week. Not sure how we restrict shopping except by some sort of entry card that can be stamped and you only get a couple of visits a week...that will cause trouble so lets hope we don't get to that. I am really hoping that 2. above starts to affect our behaviour (and peer pressure on the flaunters via social media) before such measures kick in...It must be remembered that some infection is required to get us through this and off restrictions...just not too much to swamp the NHS.
Rights to exercise - will go within a couple of weeks I think. We will go down to only going outside into your garden to let the dog have sh1t etc. If you don't have a garden but do have a dog expect lots of sh1t flinging to go on!
We will end up on just being able to shop for food from some shops and nothing else with heavy fines and confinement if you don't get behind this. We may even see movable/temporary roadblocks at some junctions where motorists will have to justify the journey. Anything to further increase the fear factor of either monetary deprivation, loss of freedom or, ultimately, causing the death of themselves, their family/friends or a vulnerable stranger to sufficient levels to make people stay in.
