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Is Ukraine about to get messy?

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Amid concerns that Russian troops are positioned along the border of Ukraine, is it about to get messy?

www.reuters.com

Biden warns Putin of sanctions, aid for Ukraine military if Russia invades

President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that the West would impose "strong economic and other measures" on Russia if it invades Ukraine, while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand farther eastward.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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So what shall we do if the Ruskies successfully counter attack in the next month or so, break through and converge on Kyiv, and whilst momentum endures crack onto the border of the next country they'd like to 'liberate' from Western influence?

Most nations have sunk billions of military aid into this gig, and now supplying a small amount of tanks. We obviously don't want the Russians to succeed but what if they do and then want more?
 
Downsizer said:
I simply can't see that scenario.
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All options are on the table. The point to ponder is that one side can pour seemingly endless amounts of ill-informed men and matériels into the meat grinder (sanctions don’t seem to be working due to Uncle Xi keeping supply lanes open) and the other with less human redundancy, bearing down on a year of ceaseless ops, being equipped hand to mouth with items donated sporadically…and with rare continuity of operation and maintenance. At some point there are odds that could lead to holes appearing if the Russians spill enough blood on it.
 
If the current situation settles down in to Cyprus/Korea demilitarised zone type situation then this will be an open sore for Putin and his ilk in Moscow.

He will likely rebuild his force, manage the internal messaging and come back in few years time and try again. The human rights abuses that a puppet regime will hide, to maintain control just cannot be imagined.
 
vim_fuego said:
All options are on the table. The point to ponder is that one side can pour seemingly endless amounts of ill-informed men and matériels into the meat grinder (sanctions don’t seem to be working due to Uncle Xi keeping supply lanes open) and the other with less human redundancy, bearing down on a year of ceaseless ops, being equipped hand to mouth with items donated sporadically…and with rare continuity of operation and maintenance. At some point there are odds that could lead to holes appearing if the Russians spill enough blood on it.
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Your scenario is feasible, but only in the long term. It won't be this spring that's for sure and you are potentially underestimating the will of the Ukrainian people.

Secondly I'd argue sanctions are biting to a point. I follow this war very closely and Russian tank refurbishment and production is way down, and they are struggling to equip even t72s with modern optics and weather sensors. I could go on...
 
Downsizer said:
Your scenario is feasible, but only in the long term. It won't be this spring that's for sure and you are potentially underestimating the will of the Ukrainian people.

Secondly I'd argue sanctions are biting to a point. I follow this war very closely and Russian tank refurbishment and production is way down, and they are struggling to equip even t72s with modern optics and weather sensors. I could go on...
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Sanctions would be more effective if the likes of India and China played the game, but they like cheap oil and gas to fuel their post covid economic recovery, so keep supply lines open, plus the smaller black market private economy that forms close to any conflict. At some point in the future, the ‘West’ may have to escalate from irregular assistance to something more substantial, driven by progress from Russia who are likely, through frustration on one hand, and a leader losing his grip on the other, who needs to show tangible results for the high body count. They have history of accepting ridiculous casualties in the name of patriotism , and until we can dissuade them otherwise, we have a problem.
 
I think there is a lot to be said for the current strategy which is bleeding russia dry for a pittance in terms of cost.
 
Problem with sanctions is time, the rich get hit straight away, but they will always have some safe cash tucked away, as long as they stay away from windows in tall buildings they will make it.

There will come a point, sometimes in the next year or so when the middle classes will start to feel the pain, and this could be a critical turning point for the country.
 
With each one of these deaths Putin is less likely to hear the truth, and the war will drag on with its WW1 levels of respect for life.

Everyone knows that people are still buying his oil and gas, and good luck to them, however, I think that any country that continues to do so and exports manufactured goods to countries that dont buy it should start get some kind of surcharge. Other wise we’re creating a really unbalanced global economy, punishing those who are trying to do what is right.
 
So after 12 months of horrible death and destruction in the war in Ukraine it carries on and mad Vlad is no nearer his objectives. So resident experts how do you see the next 12 months panning out in the Ukraine/Russia war.
 
In the next 12 months, I expect to see one, maybe more Russian offensives, similar to the actions around Bakhmut, involving very little movement for heavy loss of life. I don't expect the Russian Air Force or Navy to feature any more highly, and their carrier will remain under repair. If the Ukrainians can launch an effective ground attack and take territory, I think it'll really boost their morale, and lower the Russian morale. Expect western economies to focus more on restocking munitions, but at different rates. I don't have much optimism that the UK will be anywhere near the top of the table in terms of a war economy or replenishing stocks. I think we will import in the short term, promise to reinvigorate the home industry and then kick the can down the road.
Ukraine will get the supplies it needs, but it will be from many nations around the world, not just the EU, UK and US.
I think that Ukraine will aim to split the land bridge to Crimea, with the goal of a symbolic liberation of Mariupol. That done, expect the Kerch bridge to be targeted and destroyed. At that point, Ukrainian F16's will start being seen, and felt. Following this, Wagner and the Russian Army will get really pissed at each other, internal divisions will increase, and we'll then see either a general Russian withdrawal to 1991 borders, or the beginnings of a civil war in Russia.
But then again, I'm not a Ukrainian General, and with very good reason.
 
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Russia won’t lose the war, Ukraine can’t win the war, so lots of death and money wasted until sanctions have a chance to achieve success.

Although at this point the situation in Russia will be pretty dire so god knows what he’ll, or those around him, will do then.
 
Hopefully in 12 months time Putin will have accidentally fallen out if window, died in an unexpected plane crash etc and his successor sorts out a peace deal via the UN though Ukraine may have to bend a little from its current stance. Ukraine can then return to what it does best farming. It produces 33 million tons of wheat per annum that would do two things help their economy and bring down the price of staples like pasta and bread for the rest of us. Ukraine has been the world's leading exporter of sunflower oil with a 47% share of global sunflower oil exports in 2021. Sunflower oil is used by many food companies and in the household kitchen. Peace would benefit Ukraine and the knock on effect would be better availabilty of cheaper produce for the rest of us to enjoy.
 
Hmmmm.......
 

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Another click of the ratchet towards unwanted wider troubles. The article says "collided with" rather than "shot down" so a chance to calm things down by playing "sorry it was pilot error" card

www.bbc.co.uk

US drone crashes after encounter with Russian jet

The US says the two aircraft collided over the Black Sea, but Russia says there was no contact.
www.bbc.co.uk

I have a watch of this website from time to time a surprising amount of assets stooging around near Ukraine most days
www.flightradar24.com

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.
www.flightradar24.com www.flightradar24.com
 
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