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Corona virus

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So...predictions on sequence and schedule of Lock-down restrictions being removed?

Here's a couple for as early as mid-May:
1. Skips - Fly tipping is going to cost the government tens of millions if they don't open them soon. Down here its rife as people are sat at home all day having a 'sort out' and its mounting up. I reckon you could work up a simple time slot system to keep it safe and numbers down at any one time.

2. Allow football/sports teams to play behind closed doors allowing them to get their leagues sorted out plus giving sports fans a morale boost by at least being able to watch something on TV other than re-runs of 80's movies and box-sets.
 
Phase One should be allowing pubs to reopen but for home deliveries only. There was some loon on Talkradio stating that pubs could be kept closed until December. You want riots?
 
Small and local first, some areas will need to stay closed mainly because of the virus risk but also because of the pressure they put on other services.

Local shops, cafes, restaurants and pubs that serve food, any typical town centre pubs that are linked to weekend violence should be held back for a little while. Opening back up city centres and shopping malls will be tricky, they need enough customers to justify opening, however these customers will be more densely packed and come from a wider area, we often opt down to London for a wander and a pint at the weekend and I won’t be doing that for a few month, lock down lifting or not.

What worries me is that people have different risk profiles, and rightly so, some will not want to be in work for genuine health concerns and as ever others will be swinging the lead, going to be hard to manage this.
 
busby1971 said:
Small and local first, some areas will need to stay closed mainly because of the virus risk but also because of the pressure they put on other services.

Local shops, cafes, restaurants and pubs that serve food, any typical town centre pubs that are linked to weekend violence should be held back for a little while. Opening back up city centres and shopping malls will be tricky, they need enough customers to justify opening, however these customers will be more densely packed and come from a wider area, we often opt down to London for a wander and a pint at the weekend and I won’t be doing that for a few month, lock down lifting or not.

What worries me is that people have different risk profiles, and rightly so, some will not want to be in work for genuine health concerns and as ever others will be swinging the lead, going to be hard to manage this.
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Your latter point is a valid one...And its compounded by the length of any lock-down. The longer it goes on the more people will adapt and become reticent to change back to the way before.
 
On a slightly different tack, as a self confessed aviation geek I have an interest in various aviation related publications; the main gist at the moment is how this virus is going to affect world airlines and commercial air travel.

According to the ICAO, the Covid-19 crisis could send the number of international air travellers falling by up to 1.2 billion by September 2020. They also estimate that airline revenues could fall by $160-253 billion for the first nine months of this year.

According to its baseline scenario, referencing originally planned capacity, passenger numbers could have risen by 64 million in the first nine months of this year, while revenues could have increased by $15 billion.

The main issue though is that so far in April global passenger capacity is down 91%.

I think there are going to be a few well known airline brands disappearing by the end of this year.
 
Vim_Fuego said:
So...predictions on sequence and schedule of Lock-down restrictions being removed?

Here's a couple for as early as mid-May:
1. Skips - Fly tipping is going to cost the government tens of millions if they don't open them soon. Down here its rife as people are sat at home all day having a 'sort out' and its mounting up. I reckon you could work up a simple time slot system to keep it safe and numbers down at any one time.

2. Allow football/sports teams to play behind closed doors allowing them to get their leagues sorted out plus giving sports fans a morale boost by at least being able to watch something on TV other than re-runs of 80's movies and box-sets.
Click to expand...

I'll add to this Garden Centres...Lidl, Aldi, B&Q and even Asda have put plants out to buy...Millions have got fcuk all to do except potter around and the weather is annoyingly cooperative after the wettest winter since Noah went into boat building. Give people something to do and they are more likely to behave.
 
Interesting debates around all sorts of things with some really important questions going un-asked and they are probably unpopular topics:

1. if an NHS workers dies of the Corona Virus how can you confirm they contracted it at work? They also use transport, get groceries etc in, takeaways, members of their family might bring it into the house from elsewhere and a myriad of other possibilities. I'm not meaning to be disrespectful but its a valid question.

2. Reporting on deaths - The scum (my label for most all the press these days) is starting to compare numbers from around Europe. How much can we hang on these figures when its questionable how deaths are being reported throughout? In the UK if a person in an old folks home is 97 years old and a dodgy ticker who sadly then dies of a heart failure but is also found to have had C19 thats what they are putting on the death certificate...notch one up for C19...but is that right or accurate? How do we know if other European countries have been as fastidious in their reporting? Also who believes China's figures? If you do I have some magic beans for sale...

3. Care Home Deaths. It was always going to be a rich seam of opportunity for C19. My Uncle is in one in Yorkshire and so far so good but with every dawn I expect a call on the matter. That aside the Beeb was having a number of private Care Home Managers and workers on the day before and it felt like they were posturing to blame lay anywhere aside from their own doorstep. These are places were they charge £1000 a week (that's what my Uncle is being charged) but they pay the staff approx £8-9, maybe £10 an hour. Despite none of them stating they had ran out of PPE they said a lack of PPE was to blame? Also the Guv'ment not acting fast enough to lock them down. Could it be a consideration that sometimes that much per hour does not get you the most skilled workers in the country nor the most stringent of training and assurance regimes? Could they have brought it into the home's themselves through poor practice or just plain old bad luck? When you have 50 vulnerable inmates sat in hutch like rooms in rows with one person seeing to, for example, 10 or more of them in a single shift it just takes one to feck up...When some homes have lost 30% of their clients its got to be twitchy bum time when there is time to investigate why.
 
Vim_Fuego said:
Interesting debates around all sorts of things with some really important questions going un-asked and they are probably unpopular topics:

1. if an NHS workers dies of the Corona Virus how can you confirm they contracted it at work? Almost impossible to confirm but that's not going to stop the media deciding

2. Reporting on deaths - How do we know if other European countries have been as fastidious in their reporting? We don't know we can only assume they might be playing it straight. Also who believes China's figures? I do in the same way I believe in the tooth fairy and Santa.

3. Care Home Deaths.
Click to expand...

Care home deaths, first thing to consider just why is an older person living in a care home? Usually they have at least one health issue that requires extra care or they cannot provide for themselves in a manner they once did in addition due to age their immune systems aren't as up to the mark as they were in their younger days. So we have a nice, cozy, warm dwelling chock full of frail old folk with a myriad of differing ailments and most have communal dining, seating areas. Sadly that environment is lowing hanging fruit for Covid 19 and will go through the place rapidly if it gets through the front door. The majority of deaths in the UK have been of those over 60, care home residents are usually well past that. Sadly the fix options are limited, a vaccine (Months away) or isolate the whole building residents and staff for the duration.
 
If you look at the numbers of NHS staff dying then statistically you’ll find that they are probably behind the levels expected for the size of the population, even more surprising when you consider that they are being actively exposed to sufferers on a daily basis. However, these people are potentially placing themselves in harms way for the nation so we should appreciate this. If PPE was so important why aren’t all the healthcare workers going down with this virus, are they all being fastidious in their donning and doffing.

The press are revealing how thick they are, and when Boris next week or soon after tries to get people back in to work then the fear and hysteria they have stoked is going to be a problem.

What really annoys me about the press, they are focussing on minor matters that would probably not impact on the big picture, but make the news sound like it would. I was watching BBC Breakfast, I don’t watch any other news, on TV a couple of days ago and a care home manager was interviewed, she was full of positivity for her own home and how they were coping, criticizing other homes that had failed to prepare or react quickly, and being realistic about the deaths that were happening, all I could think was that she would not be back on the BBC any time soon.
 
If you look at the numbers of NHS staff dying then statistically you’ll find that they are probably behind the levels expected for the size of the population - they are, and despite R4 wheeling out statisticians they unfortuneatly came to the same conclusion, but there's more.

In order for the NHS to be found as more exposed than anymone else because of the nature of their work, you'd firstly have to admit that their PPE was innefective - or indeed that it was supplied, and they chose not to use it.

Either way - not BBC material. Wrong agenda - wrong time
 
Sobering thoughts for today 29/04/2020.
More Americans have now died of Covid 19 in just a few short weeks than in the many years of the Vietnam war.
The Nazi blitz of Britain in the 5 years of WW2 killed around 32,00 people today's Covid figure for the UK is 26,097 souls.

Properly frightening stats and we the great human race, the rulers of the world have, as yet, no cure. Stay safe folks
 
The media are reporting that we could be in ‘lockdown’ until June. How many of think we will still have a functioning economy if the country is shut down until then? IMHO small businesses will go to the wall and the tourist and hospitality industries will be f**ked. I would guess we will also see people refusing to obey the latest set of Hammurabian laws.
 
The road outside my house is becoming as busy as a normal pre-virus day currently. I thought we'd start to get a bit tattered around the 8 week point of any lock down but it looks like 6 weeks is the start of the rot.
 
The is a noticeable increase in road traffic locally, not at pre-Covid levels be certainly more than 2 weeks ago. Some people are starting to push back on the regulations and becoming less willing to comply.
 
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