I am not going to revisit old threads surrounding what used to be called promotion quotas (now known as promotion predictions), but to explain something about the 'second half' of the promotion year. For anyone who speaks with their SNCO's who have been on TMT2 this year then it is clearly explained that once someone is released from the Reserve Promotion Selection List (RPSL) to the Promotion Selection List (PSL) then they have to be made an offer of promotion. Thus the second half of the year if Manning release too many it will have an impact on the next promotion board. They therefore 'dripfeed' the releases to ensure they only have the amount that they require.
In the event that posts become disestablished (as parts of SDSR, future basing etc) Manning need to accommodate those people whose posts have gone. On a positive note, if Manning see an uplift in posts (which is on the cards as current platforms expand and new areas open up to the trade) then they can very quickly ask for more releases (generally takes about 24hrs from requesting a release to the names being transferred). Yes, Manning have only reached No38 (31 (less the one individual who shouldn't have featured) in the first release, and just released a further 7 on the second release) and these people are to fill vacancies arising from Dec 11 through to Mar 11. These vacancies may be created directly as a result of someone going overseas (because a promotee is as eligible for a Sgt's post as a current Sgt under ZEUS), or indeed after having ZEUS'd people to backfill before promoting.
Come Jan 12 then an additional check will be done on further vacancies, those people who need to move under ZEUS, etc and then the CM can ask for a further release if required. So whilst the prediction for 2011/2012 is 60, it is merely that, a prediction. When providing the prediction figure there are many factors that have to be weighed up 'on the day' by the CM to arrive at that figure. An example being if a Sgt has yet to sign on to LOS30 (so currently on a 22yr contract) and their exit dates shows as falling in the promotion year then they are classed as a vacancy arising this in turn translates into a positive promotion figure to add to the prediction. If that Sgt then signs on the vacancy no longer exists and thus Manning doesn't have a post to promote someone into. Another factore is that almost monthly the CM's get an establishment variation table to cross check against their posts, if a post is disestablished this is the first the CM will know about it - they are generally not informed in advance by the sections that have disestablished the posts. These are just two examples of why that prediction figure is so 'fluid' and are very much outside of the control of the CM.
In response to an earlier post, then yes there has been a glut of PVR's within the trade of late, however, not all of these posts are going to create promotiom. Some of those posts were rank-ranged posts where the preferred rank is Cpl, and thus it will fall to the Cpl desk to fill those vacancies when the Sgt exits (sorry to be bearer of bad news).
Finally, and again in response to an earlier post. Yes the CM knows about overseas vacancies, which is why he starts trawling for them early on, however, you can't automatically assume that these are going in turn create UK vacancies to promote into. Who ever goes overseas is doing so to replace (generally) someone is returning to the UK and thus the repat of those people has to be factored in. There are also personnel who are reaching the end of their out of trade tours that have to be accommodated back into trade that could coincide with someone moving overseas. So it isn't quite as cut and dry as some of you may think it is.
I would recommend that if you have a Sgt who has recently returned from TMT2, or your Sgt is going on TMT2 soon, then get the guys together for coffee when they are free and ask them to talk about the knowledge that the CM passes on to them during the course. It will open your eyes up to what they deal with on a daily basis I assure you.
Anyway, hopefully that has given you all some food for thought and I will keep checking back in case there are any other nuggets of information I can pass on to you.